National health expenditure projections, 1994-2005.

Using 1993 as a baseline and assuming that current laws and practices continue, the authors project U.S. health expenditures through the year 2005. Annual spending growth has declined since 1990, and, in the scenario reported here, that trend continues in 1994. Growth of health spending increases thereafter, but remains below the average experience of the past decade. Even so, health expenditures grow faster than the gross domestic product (GDP), and by 2005, account for 17.9 percent of the GDP. Unless the system changes, Medicare and Medicaid are projected to pay for an increasing share of total spending during the next decade.