Wilmoth J R, Horiuchi S
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley 2232, USA.
Demography. 1999 Nov;36(4):475-95.
Rectangularization of human survival curves is associated with decreasing variability in the distribution of ages at death. This variability, as measured by the interquartile range of life table ages at death, has decreased from about 65 years to 15 years since 1751 in Sweden. Most of this decline occurred between the 1870s and the 1950s. Since then, variability in age at death has been nearly constant in Sweden, Japan, and the United States, defying predictions of a continuing rectangularization. The United States is characterized by a relatively high degree of variability, compared with both Sweden and Japan. We suggest that the historical compression of mortality may have had significant psychological and behavioral impacts.
人类生存曲线的矩形化与死亡年龄分布的变异性降低有关。自1751年以来,瑞典用死亡时生命表年龄的四分位距衡量的这种变异性已从约65岁降至15岁。这种下降大部分发生在19世纪70年代至20世纪50年代之间。从那时起,瑞典、日本和美国的死亡年龄变异性几乎保持不变,这与持续矩形化的预测相悖。与瑞典和日本相比,美国的变异性程度相对较高。我们认为,死亡率的历史压缩可能产生了重大的心理和行为影响。