Chau A W, Phillips J G, Von Baggo K L
Department of Psychology, The University of Hong Kong.
J Gen Psychol. 2000 Oct;127(4):426-38. doi: 10.1080/00221300009598595.
Gambling has been viewed as irrational, and even though blackjack offers rational strategies (i.e., Basic [E. Thorp, 1966] and card counting), people exhibit departures from rationality (e.g., "Never Bust" strategies). To determine whether departures from rational behavior reflect ignorance or fatigue, university students were provided with on-line Basic advice while playing a simplified computer blackjack. Although the on-line advice initially affected the totals these players sat on, it was eventually discarded for higher risk strategies. Irrational play did not reflect ignorance or fatigue and was not necessarily conservative. Real fluctuations of odds in blackjack may lead to situations in which Basic is not perceived by players as effective. Because Basic is not a personalized strategy, it seems less likely to be maintained in the face of losses. Players were more optimistic that they might win when utilizing their personalized strategies.
赌博一直被视为不理性的行为,尽管二十一点提供了理性策略(即基础策略[E. 索普,1966年]和算牌法),但人们仍表现出偏离理性的行为(例如“绝不爆牌”策略)。为了确定偏离理性行为是反映了无知还是疲劳,大学生们在玩简化版电脑二十一点游戏时,会得到在线基础策略建议。尽管在线建议最初影响了这些玩家所持有筹码的总数,但最终他们还是选择了风险更高的策略而摒弃了该建议。不理性的玩法并非反映无知或疲劳,也不一定是保守的。二十一点中赔率的实际波动可能导致玩家认为基础策略无效。由于基础策略不是个性化策略,因此在面对损失时似乎不太可能被坚持使用。玩家在使用个性化策略时更乐观地认为自己可能会赢。