Haydon D T, Stenseth N C, Boyce M S, Greenwood P E
Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Nov 6;98(23):13149-54. doi: 10.1073/pnas.221275198. Epub 2001 Oct 23.
Population ecologists have traditionally focused on the patterns and causes of population variation in the temporal domain for which a substantial body of practical analytic techniques have been developed. More recently, numerous studies have documented how populations may fluctuate synchronously over large spatial areas; analyses of such spatially extended time-series have started to provide additional clues regarding the causes of these population fluctuations and explanations for their synchronous occurrence. Here, we report on the development of a phase-based method for identifying coupling between temporally coincident but spatially distributed cyclic time-series, which we apply to the numbers of muskrat and mink recorded at 81 locations across Canada. The analysis reveals remarkable parallel clines in the strength of coupling between proximate populations of both species--declining from west to east--together with a corresponding increase in observed synchrony between these populations the further east they are located.
传统上,种群生态学家关注的是时间域内种群变化的模式和原因,针对这一领域已经开发出了大量实用的分析技术。最近,许多研究记录了种群如何在大空间范围内同步波动;对这种空间扩展时间序列的分析开始为这些种群波动的原因以及同步发生的原因提供更多线索。在这里,我们报告了一种基于相位的方法的开发,该方法用于识别时间上一致但空间分布的循环时间序列之间的耦合,我们将其应用于加拿大81个地点记录的麝鼠和水貂数量。分析揭示了两种物种相邻种群之间耦合强度的显著平行梯度——从西向东递减——同时随着这些种群向东分布越远,观察到的同步性相应增加。