Frey H Christopher, Patil Sumeet R
Department of Civil Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh 27695-7908, USA.
Risk Anal. 2002 Jun;22(3):553-78.
Identification and qualitative comparison of sensitivity analysis methods that have been used across various disciplines, and that merit consideration for application to food-safety risk assessment models, are presented in this article. Sensitivity analysis can help in identifying critical control points, prioritizing additional data collection or research, and verifying and validating a model. Ten sensitivity analysis methods, including four mathematical methods, five statistical methods, and one graphical method, are identified. The selected methods are compared on the basis of their applicability to different types of models, computational issues such as initial data requirement and complexity of their application, representation of the sensitivity, and the specific uses of these methods. Applications of these methods are illustrated with examples from various fields. No one method is clearly best for food-safety risk models. In general, use of two or more methods, preferably with dissimilar theoretical foundations, may be needed to increase confidence in the ranking of key inputs.
本文介绍了已在各学科中使用且值得考虑应用于食品安全风险评估模型的敏感性分析方法的识别及定性比较。敏感性分析有助于识别关键控制点、确定额外数据收集或研究的优先级,以及验证和确认模型。识别出了十种敏感性分析方法,包括四种数学方法、五种统计方法和一种图形方法。根据这些方法对不同类型模型的适用性、计算问题(如初始数据要求和应用复杂性)、敏感性表示以及这些方法的具体用途进行了比较。通过来自不同领域的示例说明了这些方法的应用。对于食品安全风险模型,没有一种方法显然是最佳的。一般来说,可能需要使用两种或更多方法,最好是理论基础不同的方法,以增强对关键输入排名的信心。