Franke Carlos Roberto, Ziller Mario, Staubach Christoph, Latif Mojib
School of Veterinary Medicine, Federal University of Bahia, Brazil.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2002 Sep;8(9):914-7. doi: 10.3201/eid0809.010523.
We used time-series analysis and linear regression to investigate the relationship between the annual Niño-3 index from 1980 to 1998 and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the State of Bahia, Brazil, during 1985-1999. An increase in VL incidence was observed in the post-El Niño years 1989 (+38.7%) and 1995 (+33.5%). The regression model demonstrates that the previous year's mean Niño-3 index and the temporal trend account for approximately 50% of the variance in the annual incidence of VL in Bahia. The model shows a robust agreement with the real data, as only the influence of El Niño on the cycle of VL was analyzed. The results suggest that this relationship could be used to predict high-risk years for VL and thus help reduce health impact in susceptible regions in Brazil.
我们采用时间序列分析和线性回归方法，研究了1980年至1998年期间的年度尼诺3指数与1985年至1999年巴西巴伊亚州内脏利什曼病（VL）的年发病率之间的关系。在1989年（增长38.7%）和1995年（增长33.5%）的厄尔尼诺事件之后，观察到VL发病率有所上升。回归模型表明，前一年的平均尼诺3指数和时间趋势约占巴伊亚州VL年发病率方差的50%。该模型与实际数据显示出高度一致性，因为仅分析了厄尔尼诺对VL周期的影响。结果表明，这种关系可用于预测VL的高危年份，从而有助于减少对巴西易感地区的健康影响。
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