Engels R A, Healy M K
Environ Plan A. 1981 Nov;13(11):1,345-60.
"This paper examines gross interstate migration flows for five periods for the years between 1969 and 1978. The analysis is based upon a newly available data source--Federal income tax returns. Approximately 90% of the US population is covered by this data series. The matching of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) returns between filing dates enables the determination both of the origin and of the destination of migrants, with few of the risks of geographic miscoding present. "These data illustrate that despite divergent economic fluctuations over the past nine years, the patterns of interstate migration have remained virtually unchanged. With few exceptions, the number of migrants either leaving or entering a particular state comprise identical proportions over time.... In addition, these data offer considerable evidence that current residence has a significant impact on the selection of a destination." Comparisons are made with data from the Current Work History Sample and the 1970 census.
本文考察了1969年至1978年间五个时期的州际总移民流动情况。该分析基于一个新的可用数据源——联邦所得税申报表。该数据系列覆盖了约90%的美国人口。通过匹配美国国税局(IRS)申报表的申报日期,可以确定移民的来源地和目的地,几乎不存在地理编码错误的风险。“这些数据表明,尽管在过去九年中经济波动各异,但州际移民模式几乎没有变化。除了少数例外情况,随着时间的推移,离开或进入特定州的移民数量所占比例相同……此外,这些数据提供了大量证据,表明当前居住地对目的地的选择有重大影响。”文中还与当前工作经历样本数据和1970年人口普查数据进行了比较。