[Predictability of international migration].

Population forecasts concerning international migration for the Netherlands are evaluated. "In the Dutch Population Forecasts from 1975 onwards, the uncertainty of the [international] migration projections has been underestimated. The interval between the low and high variants covered only a quarter of the subsequent observations. The...model...[utilized is] appropriate for determining the width of the forecast interval. Average migration in a number of years can be forecast considerably more accurately than migration in separate years." (SUMMARY IN ENG)