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系统发育可靠性的贝叶斯和最大似然自展法测度的比较

Comparison of Bayesian and maximum likelihood bootstrap measures of phylogenetic reliability.

作者信息

Douady Christophe J, Delsuc Frédéric, Boucher Yan, Doolittle W Ford, Douzery Emmanuel J P

机构信息

Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.

出版信息

Mol Biol Evol. 2003 Feb;20(2):248-54. doi: 10.1093/molbev/msg042.

Abstract

Owing to the exponential growth of genome databases, phylogenetic trees are now widely used to test a variety of evolutionary hypotheses. Nevertheless, computation time burden limits the application of methods such as maximum likelihood nonparametric bootstrap to assess reliability of evolutionary trees. As an alternative, the much faster Bayesian inference of phylogeny, which expresses branch support as posterior probabilities, has been introduced. However, marked discrepancies exist between nonparametric bootstrap proportions and Bayesian posterior probabilities, leading to difficulties in the interpretation of sometimes strongly conflicting results. As an attempt to reconcile these two indices of node reliability, we apply the nonparametric bootstrap resampling procedure to the Bayesian approach. The correlation between posterior probabilities, bootstrap maximum likelihood percentages, and bootstrapped posterior probabilities was studied for eight highly diverse empirical data sets and were also investigated using experimental simulation. Our results show that the relation between posterior probabilities and bootstrapped maximum likelihood percentages is highly variable but that very strong correlations always exist when Bayesian node support is estimated on bootstrapped character matrices. Moreover, simulations corroborate empirical observations in suggesting that, being more conservative, the bootstrap approach might be less prone to strongly supporting a false phylogenetic hypothesis. Thus, apparent conflicts in topology recovered by the Bayesian approach were reduced after bootstrapping. Both posterior probabilities and bootstrap supports are of great interest to phylogeny as potential upper and lower bounds of node reliability, but they are surely not interchangeable and cannot be directly compared.

摘要

由于基因组数据库呈指数增长,系统发育树现在被广泛用于检验各种进化假说。然而,计算时间负担限制了诸如最大似然非参数自展法等方法在评估进化树可靠性方面的应用。作为一种替代方法,引入了速度快得多的贝叶斯系统发育推断方法,该方法将分支支持表示为后验概率。然而,非参数自展比例与贝叶斯后验概率之间存在明显差异,导致有时难以解释强烈冲突的结果。为了协调这两个节点可靠性指标,我们将非参数自展重采样程序应用于贝叶斯方法。我们研究了八个高度多样化的实证数据集的后验概率、自展最大似然百分比和自展后验概率之间的相关性,并通过实验模拟进行了调查。我们的结果表明,后验概率与自展最大似然百分比之间的关系高度可变,但当在自展特征矩阵上估计贝叶斯节点支持时,总是存在非常强的相关性。此外,模拟结果证实了实证观察结果,即自展方法更为保守,可能不太容易强烈支持错误的系统发育假说。因此,自展后,贝叶斯方法恢复的拓扑结构中的明显冲突减少了。后验概率和自展支持作为节点可靠性的潜在上限和下限,对系统发育都非常重要,但它们肯定不能互换,也不能直接比较。

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