[Models to explain and predict medical case-loads: their use in calculating the maximum family medicine list that allows at least ten minutes per consultation].

OBJECTIVE

To calculate the maximum family medicine list that gives at least ten minutes per consultation.Design. Transversal.

SETTING

Three health centres.

SUBJECTS

45 826 inhabitants.

MEASUREMENTS

We used the appointments made at three centres to calculate the annual time employed per patient and we adjusted it to allocate a minimum of ten minutes per consultation. We established a cubic regression model to predict the mean case-load per age of patient in general medicine and calculated the maximum list if 70% of the working day were dedicated to care. The results contrasted two centres with greater nursing involvement and one with less. We showed the R2 coefficients. We calculated the maximum lists for the health centres of Navarra and showed them in five clusters worked out on the basis of the percentage of patients >=65.

RESULTS

Age explained 86.1% of variability in mean case-load at each age (84% in children and 93.5% in adults). According to the mean percentage of those >=65 years old, the average maximum lists for centres with more or less nursing involvement are as follows: 7.0%>=65 (2025 and 1989); 14.0% (1834 and 1715); 21.2% (1691 and 1558); 27.0% (1648 and 1460), 34.0% (1560 and 1340).

CONCLUSION

To a great extent, age explains the variability in case-load and lets us calculate the maximum number of patients on the list that still ensures a minimum time for each consultation.