Kousa A, Moltchanova E, Viik-Kajander M, Rytkönen M, Tuomilehto J, Tarvainen T, Karvonen M
Geological Survey of Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2004 Feb;58(2):136-9. doi: 10.1136/jech.58.2.136.
To examine the association of spatial variation in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence and its putative environmental determinants in ground water such as total water hardness, the concentration of calcium, magnesium, fluoride, iron, copper, zinc, nitrate, and aluminium.
Small area study using Bayesian modelling and the geo-referenced data aggregated into 10 km x 10 km cells.
The population data were obtained from Statistics Finland, AMI case data from the National Death Register and the Hospital Discharge Register, and the geochemical data from hydrogeochemical database of Geological Survey of Finland.
A total of 18 946 men aged 35-74 years with the first AMI attack in the years 1983, 1988, and 1993.
One unit (in German degree degrees dH) increment in water hardness decreased the risk of AMI by 1%. Geochemical elements in ground water included in this study did not show a statistically significant effect on the incidence and spatial variation of AMI, even though suggestive findings were detected for fluoride (protective), iron and copper (increasing).
The results of this study with more specific Bayesian statistical analysis confirm findings from earlier observations of the inverse relation between water hardness and coronary heart disease. The role of environmental geochemistry in the geographical variation of the AMI incidence should be studied further in more detail incorporating the individual intake of both food borne and water borne nutrients. Geochemical-spatial analysis provides a basis for the selection of areas suitable for such research.
研究急性心肌梗死(AMI)发病率的空间差异及其在地下水中的假定环境决定因素之间的关联,这些因素包括总水硬度、钙、镁、氟、铁、铜、锌、硝酸盐和铝的浓度。
采用贝叶斯模型的小区域研究,并将地理参考数据汇总为10 km×10 km的单元格。
人口数据来自芬兰统计局,AMI病例数据来自国家死亡登记册和医院出院登记册,地球化学数据来自芬兰地质调查局的水文地球化学数据库。
共有18946名年龄在35 - 74岁之间的男性,他们在1983年、1988年和1993年首次发生AMI。
水硬度增加一个单位(德国度dH),AMI风险降低1%。本研究中纳入的地下水中的地球化学元素对AMI的发病率和空间差异未显示出统计学上的显著影响,尽管发现氟(有保护作用)、铁和铜(有增加作用)有提示性结果。
这项采用更具体贝叶斯统计分析的研究结果证实了早期关于水硬度与冠心病之间负相关关系的观察结果。应进一步更详细地研究环境地球化学在AMI发病率地理差异中的作用,纳入食物源性和水源性营养素的个体摄入量。地球化学空间分析为选择适合此类研究的区域提供了基础。