[Probability of developing and dying of cancer in Catalonia during the period 1998-2001].

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

We intended to estimate the probability of developing and dying from cancer in Catalonia during the period 1998-2001.

PATIENTS AND METHOD

We used a Bayesian model which incorporates data from the Tarragona and Girona Cancer Registries and from the Catalonia Mortality Registry. The probability of developing and dying from cancer has been calculated using a competitive risk-based methodology.

RESULTS

Lifetime probability of developing cancer in Catalonia is almost 1 out of 2 (43.7%) for men and 1 out of 3 (32.1%) in women. The probability of dying from cancer is 29.1% for men and 17.9% in women. 67% of men and 56% of women diagnosed with cancer will die from this disease. One out of 14 men will develop a lung cancer during his life and 1 out of 11 women will develop breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed rising in the probability of developing cancer in Catalonia over the last ten years highlights even more than ever the importance of this health problem.