Impacts of the Doha Round framework agreements on dairy policies.

Dairy is highly regulated in many countries for several reasons. Perishability, seasonal imbalances, and inelastic supply and demand for milk can cause inherent market instability. Milk buyers typically have had more market power than dairy farmers. Comparative production advantages in some countries have led to regulations and policies to protect local dairy farmers by maintaining domestic prices higher than world prices. A worldwide consensus on reduction of border measures for protecting dairy products is unlikely, and dairy will probably be an exception in ongoing World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Under the Doha Round framework agreements, countries may name some products such as dairy as "sensitive," thereby excluding them from further reforms. However, new Doha Round framework agreements depart from the current WTO rule and call for product-specific spending caps. Such caps will greatly affect the dairy sector because dairy accounts for much of the aggregate measure of support (AMS) in several countries, including the United States and Canada. Also, the amounts of dairy AMS in several countries may be recalculated relative to an international reference price. In addition, all export subsidies are targeted for elimination in the Doha Round, including export credit programs and state trading enterprises, which will limit options for disposing of surplus dairy products in foreign markets. Currently, with higher domestic prices, measures for cutting or disposing of surpluses have been used in many countries. Supply control, which is not regulated by WTO rules, remains as an option. Although explicit export subsidies are restricted by WTO rules, many countries use esoteric measures to promote dairy exports. If countries agree to eliminate "consumer financed" export subsidies using a theoretical definition and measurements proposed herein as Export Subsidy Equivalents (ESE), dairy exports in many countries may be affected. Although domestic supports and export subsidies will be reduced in the Doha Round, possible exclusion of "sensitive" products from tariff reduction will help some countries' dairy sectors survive after those final agreements. A key concern for those countries will be the simultaneous restriction of surplus-disposing measures. With fewer marketing options for surpluses, countries that continue border protection and high internal prices will likely be forced to use domestic supply control programs in the future.