Demiris N, Sharples L D
MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, UK.
Stat Med. 2006 Jun 15;25(11):1960-75. doi: 10.1002/sim.2366.
This paper is concerned with survival extrapolation that represents an integral part of cost-effectiveness analysis. In the absence of long-term survival estimates from randomized clinical trials or meta-analysis we show how age-sex matched U.K. population data can additionally be used to estimate survival patterns. We adopt a Bayesian approach and we synthesize evidence from different sources such as patient registries, U.K. population statistics and meta-analyses. We also present methodology for Bayesian analysis of the additive hazards model and we show how to apply the techniques using freely available software. The methods are illustrated using data from a cohort of cardiac arrhythmia patients.
本文关注生存外推法，它是成本效益分析不可或缺的一部分。在缺乏来自随机临床试验或荟萃分析的长期生存估计的情况下，我们展示了如何额外使用年龄性别匹配的英国人口数据来估计生存模式。我们采用贝叶斯方法，并综合来自不同来源的证据，如患者登记处、英国人口统计数据和荟萃分析。我们还介绍了加法风险模型的贝叶斯分析方法，并展示了如何使用免费软件应用这些技术。使用一组心律失常患者的数据对这些方法进行了说明。
