Quantitative risk modelling for new pharmaceutical compounds.

The process of discovering and developing new drugs is long, costly and risk-laden. Faced with a wealth of newly discovered compounds, industrial scientists need to target resources carefully to discern the key attributes of a drug candidate and to make informed decisions. Here, we describe a quantitative approach to modelling the risk associated with drug development as a tool for scenario analysis concerning the probability of success of a compound as a potential pharmaceutical agent. We bring together the three strands of manufacture, clinical effectiveness and financial returns. This approach involves the application of a Bayesian Network. A simulation model is demonstrated with an implementation in MS Excel using the modelling engine Crystal Ball.