A stochastic model simulating pathogen-specific mastitis control in a dairy herd.

The objective of this study was to develop a model simulating mastitis control in dairy herds and to investigate how sensitive the model is when varying the effect parameters according to the uncertainty. The model simulates 9 pathogen-specific mastitis types, each of which can be subclinical or clinical. The clinical cases can be 1 of 4 severities defined according to the effect of the mastitis case: mild, moderate, severe, and permanent effect. The risk factors include lactation stage, parity, yield level, previous diseases, season, and contagious spread of the infection from herd mates. Occurrence of mastitis is modeled to have direct effects on feed intake, body weight, milk yield, somatic cell count in the milk, subsequent mastitis cases within the cow and in herd mates, voluntary and involuntary culling, mortality, and milk withdrawal. Thirty-five scenarios were simulated to study model behavior and model sensitivity. The consequences per cow/yr of mastitis in the default simulated herd included 0.42 clinical mastitis occurrences, 0.56 subclinical mastitis occurrences, loss of 385-kg milk yield, a 1.3% reduced feed intake, 61-kg milk withdrawal and 146 in reduced economic net return. Based on scenarios demonstrating model behavior and sensitivity analysis, the model appears to produce valid consequences of mastitis control strategies. Representation of the effect of subclinical mastitis and of variation in mastitis severity was concluded in this study to be important when modeling mastitis economics in a dairy herd. The model offers the opportunity to study the long-term herd specific effects of a wide range of control strategies against mastitis.