Eisenberg Joseph N S, Scott James C, Porco Travis
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-3028, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2007 May;97(5):846-52. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2006.086207. Epub 2007 Jan 31.
Although the burden of diarrheal disease resulting from inadequate water quality, sanitation practices, and hygiene remains high, there is little understanding of the integration of these environmental control strategies. We tested a modeling framework designed to capture the interdependent transmission pathways of enteric pathogens.
We developed a household-level stochastic model accounting for 5 different transmission pathways. We estimated disease preventable through water treatment by comparing 2 scenarios: all households fully exposed to contaminated drinking water and all households receiving the water quality intervention.
We found that the benefits of a water quality intervention depend on sanitation and hygiene conditions. When sanitation conditions are poor, water quality improvements may have minimal impact regardless of amount of water contamination. If each transmission pathway alone is sufficient to maintain diarrheal disease, single-pathway interventions will have minimal benefit, and ultimately an intervention will be successful only if all sufficient pathways are eliminated. However, when 1 pathway is critical to maintaining the disease, public health efforts should focus on this critical pathway.
Our findings provide guidance in understanding how to best reduce and eliminate diarrheal disease through integrated control strategies.
尽管因水质、卫生设施和卫生习惯不佳导致的腹泻病负担仍然很高,但对这些环境控制策略的整合却了解甚少。我们测试了一个旨在捕捉肠道病原体相互依存传播途径的建模框架。
我们开发了一个家庭层面的随机模型,该模型考虑了5种不同的传播途径。通过比较两种情景,我们估计了通过水处理可预防的疾病:所有家庭完全暴露于受污染的饮用水中,以及所有家庭接受水质干预。
我们发现水质干预的益处取决于卫生设施和卫生条件。当卫生条件较差时,无论水污染程度如何,水质改善可能影响甚微。如果仅每条传播途径就足以维持腹泻病,单途径干预的益处将微乎其微,最终只有消除所有足够的传播途径,干预才会成功。然而,当一条途径对维持疾病至关重要时,公共卫生工作应聚焦于这条关键途径。
我们的研究结果为理解如何通过综合控制策略最佳地减少和消除腹泻病提供了指导。