到2016年的医疗支出预测：适度变化掩盖了D部分的影响。
Health spending projections through 2016: modest changes obscure part D's impact.
作者信息
Poisal John A, Truffer Christopher, Smith Sheila, Sisko Andrea, Cowan Cathy, Keehan Sean, Dickensheets Bridget
机构信息
National Health Statistics Group, Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
出版信息
Health Aff (Millwood). 2007 Mar-Apr;26(2):w242-53. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.26.2.w242. Epub 2007 Feb 21.
Growth in national health spending is projected to slow slightly from 6.9 percent in 2005 to 6.8 percent in 2006, marking the fourth consecutive year of a slowing trend. The health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to hold steady in 2006 before resuming its historical upward trend, reaching 19.6 percent of GDP by 2016. Prescription drug spending growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5 percent in 2006. Medicare prescription drug coverage has dramatically changed the distribution of drug spending among payers, but the net effect on aggregate spending is anticipated to be small.
预计全国医疗支出的增长将从2005年的6.9%略微放缓至2006年的6.8%，这标志着连续第四年呈放缓趋势。国内生产总值（GDP）中的医疗支出份额预计在2006年保持稳定，然后再恢复其历史上升趋势，到2016年将达到GDP的19.6%。预计2006年处方药支出增长将加速至6.5%。医疗保险处方药覆盖范围已极大地改变了各支付方之间药品支出的分布，但预计对总支出的净影响较小。
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