Smith Katherine F, Sax Dov F, Gaines Steven D, Guernier Vanina, Guégan Jean-François
University of Georgia Institute of Ecology, Ecology Building Way, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA.
Ecology. 2007 Aug;88(8):1903-10. doi: 10.1890/06-1052.1.
Globalization has facilitated the spread of numerous infectious agents to all corners of the planet. Analysis of the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) database quantitatively illustrates that the globalization of human infectious agents depends significantly on the range of hosts used. Infectious agents specific to humans are broadly and uniformly distributed, whereas zoonotic infectious agents are far more localized in their geographical distribution. Moreover, these patterns vary depending on transmission mode and infectious agent taxonomy. This dichotomy is unlikely to persist if certain aspects of globalization (for example, exotic species introductions) continue unabated. This raises a serious concern for public health and leaves nations with the task of determining the infectious agents that have the greatest potential to establish within their borders. At the advent of a century characterized by an apparent increase in emerging infectious diseases, these results have critical implications for public-health policy and future research pathways of infectious disease ecology.
全球化促进了众多传染病原体在全球各个角落的传播。对全球传染病与流行病学网络(GIDEON)数据库的分析定量表明,人类传染病原体的全球化在很大程度上取决于所涉及宿主的范围。特定于人类的传染病原体分布广泛且均匀,而人畜共患传染病原体在地理分布上则更为局限。此外,这些模式因传播方式和传染病原体分类而有所不同。如果全球化的某些方面(例如外来物种引入)持续不减,这种二分法不太可能持续下去。这引发了对公共卫生的严重担忧,并使各国面临确定在其境内最有可能定殖的传染病原体的任务。在一个新兴传染病明显增多的世纪来临之际,这些结果对公共卫生政策和传染病生态学的未来研究途径具有至关重要的意义。