Sorge U S, Kelton D F, Lissemore K D, Sears W, Fetrow J
Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
J Dairy Sci. 2007 Dec;90(12):5784-97. doi: 10.3168/jds.2006-0813.
The study was conducted to evaluate how the "Cow Value" module of Dairy Comp 305 (Valley Agricultural Software, Tulare, CA) performed under commercial conditions. The "Cow Value" module, COWVAL, computes a farm-specific net present value relative to an average replacement heifer for each cow in the milking and dry herd, which allows a ranking of the cows on the farm compared with replacing her with a typical replacement heifer on that farm. The average replacement heifer is used as the baseline for comparison and has a COWVAL of $0. Retaining a cow with a negative COWVAL is projected to be less profitable than replacing that cow with a new heifer. The objectives of the study were to explore trends in COWVAL over and during multiple lactations for the same cows; to describe factors that influence changes in COWVAL from one monthly Dairy Herd Improvement test to the next; and to evaluate the behavior of COWVAL after it drops below a baseline of $0 during the lifetime of a cow. Monthly Dairy Comp 305 backup cow files from 2 On-tario dairy herds between December 1999 and Decem-ber 2005 were used to generate COWVAL and list production, reproduction, and disease data for the milking cows. In total, 1,463 cows and 20,071 tests were analyzed. Within the first 60 d in milk (DIM), COWVAL was unstable and showed large fluctuations over a range of several thousand Canadian dollars (Can$). After 60 DIM COWVAL was relatively stable. The variability from month to month became less as the lactation progressed and the risk of a change in reproductive status decreased. The reproductive status of the cow influ-enced COWVAL: fresh, open, and pregnant cows had a greater COWVAL than cows declared "do not breed." As parity increased, there was a tendency toward lower COWVAL and smaller monthly changes in COWVAL. The COWVAL of 170 cows dropped below the baseline of $0 after 60 DIM. The COWVAL of 54% of those cows remained below $0, whereas 31.6% had a subsequent COWVAL > $500 (Can$). Farm management should not rely exclusively on COWVAL for culling decisions, particularly for cows that have not had at least 3 milk tests.
本研究旨在评估Dairy Comp 305(加利福尼亚州图莱里市山谷农业软件公司)的“奶牛价值”模块在商业条件下的表现。“奶牛价值”模块COWVAL会针对泌乳牛群和干奶牛群中的每头奶牛计算相对于平均后备小母牛的特定农场净现值,这使得农场中的奶牛能够与用该农场典型后备小母牛替换它的情况进行排名比较。平均后备小母牛用作比较的基线,其COWVAL为0美元。预计保留COWVAL为负的奶牛比用新小母牛替换该奶牛的利润更低。本研究的目的是探索同一批奶牛在多个泌乳期及期间COWVAL的变化趋势;描述从一次月度奶牛群改良测试到下一次测试影响COWVAL变化的因素;并评估奶牛一生中COWVAL降至0美元基线以下后的表现。使用1999年12月至2005年12月期间安大略省2个奶牛场的月度Dairy Comp 305备份奶牛文件来生成COWVAL,并列出泌乳奶牛的生产、繁殖和疾病数据。总共分析了1463头奶牛和20071次测试。在产奶的前60天内,COWVAL不稳定,在数千加元的范围内波动很大。产奶60天后,COWVAL相对稳定。随着泌乳的进行,每月的变异性变小,繁殖状态变化的风险降低。奶牛的繁殖状态影响COWVAL:初产、空怀和怀孕的奶牛比被判定“不繁殖”的奶牛具有更高的COWVAL。随着胎次增加,COWVAL有降低的趋势,且COWVAL的月度变化较小。170头奶牛的COWVAL在产奶60天后降至0美元基线以下。其中54%的奶牛的COWVAL仍低于0美元,而31.6%的奶牛随后的COWVAL大于500加元。农场管理不应仅依赖COWVAL进行淘汰决策,特别是对于未进行至少3次产奶测试的奶牛。