Tullos Desiree
Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2009 Jul;90 Suppl 3:S208-23. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.07.031. Epub 2008 Nov 20.
The need to understand and minimize negative environmental outcomes associated with large dams has both contributed to and benefited from the introduction and subsequent improvements in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. However, several limitations in the EIA process remain, including those associated with the uncertainty and significance of impact projections. These limitations are directly related to the feedback between science and policy, with information gaps in scientific understanding discovered through the EIA process contributing valuable recommendations on critical focus areas for prioritizing and funding research within the fields of ecological conservation and river engineering. This paper presents an analysis of the EIA process for the Three Gorges Project (TGP) in China as a case study for evaluating this feedback between the EIA and science and policy. For one of the best-studied public development projects in the world, this paper presents an investigation into whether patterns exist between the scientific interest (via number of publications) in environmental impacts and (a) the identification of impacts as uncertain or priority by the EIA, (b) decisions or political events associated with the dam, and (c) impact type. This analysis includes the compilation of literature on TGP, characterization of ecosystem interactions and responses to TGP through a hierarchy of impacts, coding of EIA impacts as "uncertain" impacts that require additional study and "priority" impacts that have particularly high significance, mapping of an event chronology to relate policies, institutional changes, and decisions about TGP as "events" that could influence the focus and intensity of scientific investigation, and analysis of the number of publications by impact type and order within the impact hierarchy. From these analyses, it appears that the availability and consistency of scientific information limit the accuracy of environmental impact projections. These analyses also suggest a lack of direct feedback between the EIA process and emerging science, as indicated by the failure of literature to focus on issues related to the design and management of TGP, ultimately challenging the environmental sustainability of the project. While the EIA process has enormous potential for improving both the basic sciences and the planning and sustainability of hydrodevelopment, important institutional changes need to occur for this potential to be realized. This paper concludes with recommendations about those institutional changes needed to improve the feedback between the science and policy, and ultimately the environmental sustainability, of large dams.
理解并尽量减少与大型水坝相关的负面环境影响的需求，既推动了环境影响评估（EIA）流程的引入及后续改进，也从中受益。然而，EIA流程仍存在一些局限性，包括与影响预测的不确定性和重要性相关的局限性。这些局限性与科学和政策之间的反馈直接相关，通过EIA流程发现的科学理解方面的信息差距，为生态保护和河流工程领域内研究重点的确定及资金分配提供了有价值的建议。本文以中国三峡工程（TGP）的EIA流程分析为例，评估EIA与科学及政策之间的这种反馈。对于世界上研究最充分的公共开发项目之一，本文调查了环境影响方面的科学关注度（通过出版物数量衡量）与以下方面之间是否存在模式：（a）EIA将影响识别为不确定或优先事项；（b）与大坝相关的决策或政治事件；（c）影响类型。该分析包括编纂关于三峡工程的文献，通过影响层次结构描述生态系统相互作用及对三峡工程的响应，将EIA影响编码为需要进一步研究的“不确定”影响和具有特别高重要性的“优先”影响，绘制事件年表以关联政策、制度变化以及关于三峡工程的决策（作为可能影响科学调查重点和强度的“事件”），以及按影响类型和影响层次内的顺序分析出版物数量。从这些分析来看，科学信息的可得性和一致性限制了环境影响预测的准确性。这些分析还表明，EIA流程与新兴科学之间缺乏直接反馈，文献未能关注与三峡工程设计和管理相关的问题就表明了这一点，最终对该项目的环境可持续性构成挑战。虽然EIA流程在改进基础科学以及水电开发的规划和可持续性方面具有巨大潜力，但要实现这一潜力，需要进行重要的制度变革。本文最后就改善大型水坝科学与政策之间的反馈以及最终实现其环境可持续性所需的制度变革提出了建议。
