厄尔尼诺现象与瓦努阿图间日疟原虫和恶性疟原虫流行率的变化。

El Niño and variations in the prevalence of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum in Vanuatu.

机构信息

Imperial College London, UK.

出版信息

Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2009 Dec;103(12):1285-7. doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2008.10.048. Epub 2008 Dec 13.

DOI:10.1016/j.trstmh.2008.10.048

PMID:19070877

Abstract

Malaria, both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, is a major cause of morbidity in Vanuatu. As P. vivax is more prevalent in seasonal climates and P. falciparum in areas of more consistent rainfall, it is postulated that there will be a correlation between the ratio of vivax:falciparum and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects sea surface temperatures and rainfall. With changes in global climate, the frequency, duration and strength of the ENSO are expected to alter, influencing the pattern of malaria. The data showed no obvious correlation between ENSO and either cases of malaria or the vivax:falciparum ratio.

摘要

疟疾，包括恶性疟原虫和间日疟原虫，是瓦努阿图发病率的主要原因。由于间日疟原虫在季节性气候中更为普遍，恶性疟原虫在降雨量更为稳定的地区更为普遍，因此推测 vivax:falciparum 比值与厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）之间存在相关性，ENSO 会影响海平面温度和降雨量。随着全球气候的变化，ENSO 的频率、持续时间和强度预计会发生变化，从而影响疟疾的流行模式。数据显示，ENSO 与疟疾病例或 vivax:falciparum 比值之间没有明显的相关性。