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使用死因推断确定新生儿死亡原因:当前方法与挑战

Ascertaining causes of neonatal deaths using verbal autopsy: current methods and challenges.

作者信息

Thatte N, Kalter H D, Baqui A H, Williams E M, Darmstadt G L

机构信息

Department of International Health, International Center for Advancing Neonatal Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.

出版信息

J Perinatol. 2009 Mar;29(3):187-94. doi: 10.1038/jp.2008.138. Epub 2008 Dec 25.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

'Verbal autopsy' (VA) is used to ascertain cause of death in countries where vital registration systems are lacking. Current VA methods for neonatal deaths vary widely and suffer from several limitations. We aimed to: (1) review current neonatal VA methods, (2) identify gaps and limitations, (3) illustrate some limitations using VA data and (4) identify new approaches in methodology and analysis.

STUDY DESIGN

Rolling techniques and database search terms were used to identify articles that described neonatal VA administration, validation and cause of death assignment.

RESULT

Current VA interviews include open and close-ended modules and are administered by trained interviewers. Causes of death are determined using physician review and/or computer algorithms for various neonatal causes of death. Challenges include lack of a standardized VA instrument and administration of methods, difficulty in identifying gold standards for validation studies, lack of validated algorithms for causes of death, poor existing algorithms, lack of standardized death classification terminology and the use of hierarchy to assign causes of death. Newer probabilistic methods of analysis such as Bayes Theorem or the Symptom Pattern method may improve accuracy for cause of death estimation and alleviate some of the challenges with traditional physician and algorithmic approaches, although additional research is needed.

CONCLUSION

Given the continued reliance on VA to determine cause of death in settings with inadequate registration systems, it is important to understand the gaps in current VA methods and explore how methods can be improved to accurately reflect neonatal disease burden in the global community.

摘要

目的

“口头尸检”(VA)用于在缺乏生命登记系统的国家确定死因。目前用于新生儿死亡的VA方法差异很大,且存在若干局限性。我们旨在:(1)回顾当前的新生儿VA方法,(2)识别差距和局限性,(3)利用VA数据说明一些局限性,以及(4)识别方法学和分析方面的新方法。

研究设计

采用滚动技术和数据库搜索词来识别描述新生儿VA实施、验证及死因判定的文章。

结果

当前的VA访谈包括开放式和封闭式模块,由经过培训的访谈者进行。死因通过医生审查和/或针对各种新生儿死因的计算机算法来确定。挑战包括缺乏标准化的VA工具和方法实施、难以确定验证研究的金标准、缺乏经过验证的死因算法、现有算法不佳、缺乏标准化的死亡分类术语以及使用层级结构来判定死因。尽管还需要更多研究,但贝叶斯定理或症状模式法等更新的概率分析方法可能会提高死因估计的准确性,并缓解传统医生和算法方法面临的一些挑战。

结论

鉴于在登记系统不完善的情况下仍持续依赖VA来确定死因,了解当前VA方法的差距并探索如何改进方法以准确反映全球新生儿疾病负担非常重要。

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