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气候变化、极端天气事件与对美国健康的影响:我们能说些什么?

Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?

作者信息

Mills David M

机构信息

Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, Colo, USA.

出版信息

J Occup Environ Med. 2009 Jan;51(1):26-32. doi: 10.1097/JOM.0b013e31817d32da.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health.

METHODS

A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States.

RESULTS

Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal.

CONCLUSIONS

Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.

摘要

目的

探讨气候变化对一系列极端天气事件的影响如何可能影响美国公众健康。

方法

文献综述总结了选定极端天气事件类别中气候变化信号的论据和证据、未来事件的预测以及美国适应能力和脆弱性的潜在趋势。

结果

美国西部野火已经呈现出气候变化信号。飓风和极端降水/洪水数据的变异性使得识别类似的气候变化信号变得复杂。

结论

极端事件对健康的影响分布不均,并且对一部分特殊的极端事件非常敏感。预测由气候变化驱动的极端事件特征和适应方面的累积不确定性,使得难以自信地预测气候变化导致的美国飓风、野火和极端降水/洪水对未来健康的影响。

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