Chiba Yasutaka
Department of Environmental Medicine and Behavioral Science, Kinki University School of Medicine, Osakasayama, Osaka 589-8511, Japan.
Biom J. 2009 Aug;51(4):670-6. doi: 10.1002/bimj.200800195.
Unmeasured confounders are a common problem in drawing causal inferences in observational studies. VanderWeele (Biometrics 2008, 64, 702-706) presented a theorem that allows researchers to determine the sign of the unmeasured confounding bias when monotonic relationships hold between the unmeasured confounder and the treatment, and between the unmeasured confounder and the outcome. He showed that his theorem can be applied to causal effects with the total group as the standard population, but he did not mention the causal effects with treated and untreated groups as the standard population. Here, we extend his results to these causal effects, and apply our theorems to an observational study. When researchers have a sense of what the unmeasured confounder may be, conclusions can be drawn about the sign of the bias.
在观察性研究中进行因果推断时,未测量的混杂因素是一个常见问题。范德维尔(《生物统计学》2008年,第64卷,第702 - 706页)提出了一个定理,该定理使研究人员能够在未测量的混杂因素与处理之间以及未测量的混杂因素与结果之间存在单调关系时,确定未测量的混杂偏倚的符号。他表明他的定理可应用于以总体作为标准人群的因果效应,但他未提及以治疗组和未治疗组作为标准人群的因果效应。在此,我们将他的结果扩展到这些因果效应,并将我们的定理应用于一项观察性研究。当研究人员对未测量的混杂因素可能是什么有一定认识时,就可以得出关于偏倚符号的结论。