Washington State Department of Health, Olympia, WA, USA.
Med Hypotheses. 2010 Feb;74(2):337-45. doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2009.08.032. Epub 2009 Sep 11.
The slow spread of residential electrification in the US in the first half of the 20th century from urban to rural areas resulted by 1940 in two large populations; urban populations, with nearly complete electrification and rural populations exposed to varying levels of electrification depending on the progress of electrification in their state. It took until 1956 for US farms to reach urban and rural non-farm electrification levels. Both populations were covered by the US vital registration system. US vital statistics tabulations and census records for 1920-1960, and historical US vital statistics documents were examined. Residential electrification data was available in the US census of population for 1930, 1940 and 1950. Crude urban and rural death rates were calculated, and death rates by state were correlated with electrification rates by state for urban and rural areas for 1940 white resident deaths. Urban death rates were much higher than rural rates for cardiovascular diseases, malignant diseases, diabetes and suicide in 1940. Rural death rates were significantly correlated with level of residential electric service by state for most causes examined. I hypothesize that the 20th century epidemic of the so called diseases of civilization including cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes and suicide was caused by electrification not by lifestyle. A large proportion of these diseases may therefore be preventable.
20 世纪上半叶,美国的住宅电气化从城市向农村缓慢扩展,到 1940 年形成了两个主要人群:城市人口几乎完全实现了电气化,农村人口则根据所在州电气化的进展程度,暴露在不同程度的电气化环境中。直到 1956 年,美国的农场才达到城市和农村非农业电气化水平。这两个群体都被美国生命登记系统覆盖。本研究查阅了 1920-1960 年美国生命统计数据汇编和人口普查记录,以及历史上的美国生命统计文件。1930 年、1940 年和 1950 年的美国人口普查中提供了住宅电气化数据。计算了粗死亡率,并将 1940 年白人居民死亡的城乡死亡率与城乡电气化率进行了相关性分析。1940 年,心血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和自杀等疾病的城市死亡率明显高于农村死亡率。在大多数研究的死因中,农村死亡率与所在州的住宅电力服务水平显著相关。我假设,包括心血管疾病、癌症、糖尿病和自杀在内的所谓文明病在 20 世纪的流行,是由电气化而不是生活方式引起的。因此,这些疾病中的很大一部分可能是可以预防的。