Thorslund M
Department of Social Medicine, University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden.
Soc Sci Med. 1991;32(4):455-64. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(91)90348-g.
In Sweden as well as many other welfare states, society has assumed--or been given--a number of functions formerly performed by the family. Child care and care of the elderly are here two significant examples. Since 1960 the number of institutional beds for the care of the elderly has doubled. The number of personnel working within the home-help and home-care systems has increased sharply. In spite of this, the demand for service and care is today increasing faster than the input of new resources. Many have been worried that the increasing number of very old people will create (too) heavy a strain on the Swedish economy. But the main problem will be not the economy but rather the scarcity of personnel. Even the most optimistic prognosis indicates that within the next 10 years, the number of personnel employed in the care of the elderly will no longer be sufficient. Heavy burdens will be placed on families and on women. The potential labour force of the newly retired will be needed, the private sector will expand, etc. Sweden will still be a welfare state, but the fundamental concept of a society where services and care are provided for all citizens on equal terms will change.
在瑞典以及许多其他福利国家，社会已经承担起——或者被赋予了——一些以前由家庭履行的职能。儿童保育和老年人照料就是两个显著的例子。自1960年以来，用于照料老年人的机构床位数量增加了一倍。在家庭帮助和家庭护理系统中工作的人员数量急剧增加。尽管如此，如今对服务和照料的需求增长速度超过了新资源的投入速度。许多人担心，老年人数量的不断增加将给瑞典经济造成（过于）沉重的负担。但主要问题将不是经济问题，而是人员短缺问题。即使是最乐观的预测也表明，在未来10年内，受雇照料老年人的人员数量将不再充足。家庭和女性将承受沉重负担。新退休人员的潜在劳动力将被需要，私营部门将扩张等等。瑞典仍将是一个福利国家，但那种为所有公民平等提供服务和照料的社会的基本概念将会改变。
