Landscape and Ecosystems Dynamics Group, School of Geography, University of Exeter, Amory Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4RJ, UK.
Science. 2010 Jun 4;328(5983):1275-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1186925.
Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) may curb carbon emissions, but the consequences for fire hazard are poorly understood. By analyzing satellite-derived deforestation and fire data from the Brazilian Amazon, we show that fire occurrence has increased in 59% of the area that has experienced reduced deforestation rates. Differences in fire frequencies across two land-use gradients reveal that fire-free land-management can substantially reduce fire incidence by as much as 69%. If sustainable fire-free land-management of deforested areas is not adopted in the REDD mechanism, then the carbon savings achieved by avoiding deforestation may be partially negated by increased emissions from fires.
减少森林砍伐和退化导致的排放（REDD）可能会遏制碳排放，但对火灾危害的后果了解甚少。通过分析来自巴西亚马逊地区的卫星衍生的森林砍伐和火灾数据，我们发现，在经历了森林砍伐率降低的地区中，有 59%的地区火灾发生的频率增加了。在两种土地利用梯度上的火灾频率差异表明，通过可持续的无火灾土地管理，可以将火灾发生率降低多达 69%。如果 REDD 机制不采用对已砍伐地区的可持续无火灾土地管理，那么通过避免森林砍伐而实现的碳减排量可能会因火灾排放的增加而部分抵消。
