Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, E52-262F, 50 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA 02142, and National Bureau of Economic Research.
Am Econ Rev. 2006 Sep 1;96(4):938-958. doi: 10.1257/aer.96.4.938.
We demonstrate the existence of multiple dimensions of private information in the long-term care insurance market. Two types of people purchase insurance: individuals with private information that they are high risk and individuals with private information that they have strong taste for insurance. Ex post, the former are higher risk than insurance companies expect, while the latter are lower risk. In aggregate, those with more insurance are not higher risk. Our results demonstrate that insurance markets may suffer from asymmetric information even absent a positive correlation between insurance coverage and risk occurrence. The results also suggest a general test for asymmetric information.
我们证明了长期护理保险市场中存在多种私人信息维度。有两种人购买保险:一种是有私人信息表明自己风险较高的人,另一种是有私人信息表明自己对保险有强烈偏好的人。事后看来,前者的风险高于保险公司的预期,而后者的风险则低于保险公司的预期。总的来说,拥有更多保险的人并不具有更高的风险。我们的研究结果表明,即使保险覆盖范围与风险发生之间不存在正相关关系,保险市场也可能受到信息不对称的影响。研究结果还提出了一种针对信息不对称的一般性检验方法。