Population Research Centre, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore 560072, India.
Science. 2011 Jul 29;333(6042):576-80. doi: 10.1126/science.1207969.
This paper discusses emerging demographic patterns and its opportunities and challenges for India. It investigates the specificities in the demographic transition in terms of various demographic parameters and the lack of homogeneity in the transition across states in the country. It presents some opportunities that can arise from having demographic changes, particularly the demographic dividend and interstate migration to overcome labor shortage in some parts. At the same time, there are serious challenges in the form of enhancing human capital development, addressing the issue of skewed sex ratio, and the possible rise in social and political unrest and conflict.
本文探讨了印度人口结构变化的新趋势及其带来的机遇和挑战。文中研究了人口转型在各种人口参数方面的特殊性,以及印度国内各州在人口转型方面缺乏同质性的问题。文中还提到了一些人口结构变化可能带来的机遇,尤其是人口红利和州际移民,可以缓解一些地区的劳动力短缺问题。但同时,这也带来了严峻的挑战,如加强人力资本开发、解决性别比例失衡问题,以及社会和政治动荡和冲突加剧的可能性。