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2001 年至 2009 年奥地利与流感相关的超额死亡率。

Influenza-related excess mortality, Austria 2001 till 2009.

机构信息

Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Vienna, Austria.

出版信息

Wien Klin Wochenschr. 2011 Oct;123(19-20):593-8. doi: 10.1007/s00508-011-0019-7. Epub 2011 Aug 23.

Abstract

In Austria, a country with a total population of approximately 8.3 million, the published estimates of influenza-associated deaths within the past decade are surprisingly high (up to 6000 deaths per year) when compared to neighbouring countries. The objective of our analysis was to provide reliable estimates of the annual influenza-related deaths in Austria. We estimated the seasonal influenza-related excess mortality by calculating the difference between all-cause mortality observed during the influenza season and the baseline values to be expected during that time span if increased influenza activity was absent. Increased influenza activity was defined as moderate, usual or high, categorized by the influenza activity index using weekly data from the Austrian sentinel clinical surveillance system. For obtaining estimates of baseline all-cause mortality, a cyclic regression model was applied to the time series data on weekly all-cause mortality from 2001 to 2009. Austrian seasonal influenza-related excess mortality peaked in the seasons 2002/2003 (1060 excess deaths), 2004/2005 (1102 excess deaths) and 2008/2009 (1192 excess deaths). The rising trend observed is in parallel with the increasing proportion of the Austrian population older than 65 years for the same time span (2001:15.5%; 2009: 17.5%). Our findings on seasonal influenza-related excess mortality are in accordance with the estimates from Germany and Switzerland, which were derived from a similar approach. In order to gain and to preserve higher compliance with influenza vaccination initiatives, it is essential to have reliable data on influenza-related mortality. Thus, the numbers presented so far by Austrian public health institutions must be challenged.

摘要

在奥地利,一个总人口约为 830 万的国家,与邻国相比,过去十年中公布的与流感相关的死亡人数估计出人意料地高(每年多达 6000 人)。我们分析的目的是提供奥地利每年与流感相关的死亡人数的可靠估计。我们通过计算流感季节观察到的全因死亡率与该时间段内如果没有增加的流感活动预期的基线值之间的差异来估计季节性流感相关的超额死亡率。增加的流感活动被定义为中度、通常或高度,根据每周来自奥地利监测临床监测系统的数据使用流感活动指数进行分类。为了获得基线全因死亡率的估计值,我们将 2001 年至 2009 年每周全因死亡率的时间序列数据应用于循环回归模型。奥地利季节性流感相关的超额死亡率在 2002/2003 年(1060 例超额死亡)、2004/2005 年(1102 例超额死亡)和 2008/2009 年(1192 例超额死亡)达到高峰。观察到的上升趋势与同一时期奥地利 65 岁以上人口比例的增加(2001 年:15.5%;2009 年:17.5%)平行。我们关于季节性流感相关超额死亡率的发现与德国和瑞士的估计相符,这些估计是通过类似的方法得出的。为了提高和保持对流感疫苗接种计划的更高依从性,获得与流感相关的死亡率的可靠数据至关重要。因此,奥地利公共卫生机构迄今为止提出的数字必须受到质疑。

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