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永久冻土的解冻可能会扰乱西伯利亚东部的历史牛葬墓地。

Thawing of permafrost may disturb historic cattle burial grounds in East Siberia.

机构信息

Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation.

出版信息

Glob Health Action. 2011;4. doi: 10.3402/gha.v4i0.8482. Epub 2011 Nov 21.

Abstract

Climate warming in the Arctic may increase the risk of zoonoses due to expansion of vector habitats, improved chances of vector survival during winter, and permafrost degradation. Monitoring of soil temperatures at Siberian cryology control stations since 1970 showed correlations between air temperatures and the depth of permafrost layer that thawed during summer season. Between 1900s and 1980s, the temperature of surface layer of permafrost increased by 2-4°C; and a further increase of 3°C is expected. Frequent outbreaks of anthrax caused death of 1.5 million deer in Russian North between 1897 and 1925. Anthrax among people or cattle has been reported in 29,000 settlements of the Russian North, including more than 200 Yakutia settlements, which are located near the burial grounds of cattle that died from anthrax. Statistically significant positive trends in annual average temperatures were established in 8 out of 17 administrative districts of Yakutia for which sufficient meteorological data were available. At present, it is not known whether further warming of the permafrost will lead to the release of viable anthrax organisms. Nevertheless, we suggest that it would be prudent to undertake careful monitoring of permafrost conditions in all areas where an anthrax outbreak had occurred in the past.

摘要

北极气候变暖可能会增加人畜共患病的风险,这是由于媒介栖息地的扩大、媒介在冬季存活机会的提高以及永久冻土的退化。自 1970 年以来,西伯利亚低温控制站的土壤温度监测显示,空气温度与夏季融化的永久冻土层深度之间存在相关性。在 20 世纪 90 年代至 80 年代期间,永久冻土表层温度上升了 2-4°C;预计还会进一步上升 3°C。1897 年至 1925 年间,俄罗斯北部炭疽病频繁爆发,导致 150 万头鹿死亡。炭疽病在俄罗斯北部的 29000 个定居点,包括 200 多个雅库特定居点,都有报告,这些定居点位于死于炭疽病的牛的墓地附近。在雅库特拥有足够气象数据的 17 个行政区中的 8 个行政区,已经确定了年平均气温的显著上升趋势。目前还不知道永久冻土的进一步变暖是否会导致有活力的炭疽生物体的释放。尽管如此,我们建议,在过去曾发生过炭疽病爆发的所有地区,都应谨慎监测永久冻土状况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f24/3222928/b1c34ee53201/GHA-4-8482-g001.jpg

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