The use of age-period-cohort analysis to determine the impact of economic development on COPD mortality in Hong Kong.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. The rising trend in COPD-related mortality can be linked to aging populations and trends in risk factors possibly correlated with macroeconomic development. An age-period-cohort analysis of data on a recently developed economy, Hong Kong, is able to decompose sex-specific COPD mortality rates into age, period and birth-cohort effects to examine the possible impacts of defined macro-level events. The findings of this study corroborate the relationship between COPD incidence and an aging population, shows strong evidence for declining COPD mortality among generations raised in a more economically developed environment, but, possibly due to modeling limitations, only mixed results regarding the impact of changes in air quality.