决策中的年龄效应与启发法
Age Effects and Heuristics in Decision Making.
作者信息
Besedeš Tibor, Deck Cary, Sarangi Sudipta, Shor Mikhael
机构信息
Georgia Institute of Technology.
出版信息
Rev Econ Stat. 2012 May 1;94(2):580-595. doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00174. Epub 2012 Feb 1.
Abstract
Using controlled experiments, we examine how individuals make choices when faced with multiple options. Choice tasks are designed to mimic the selection of health insurance, prescription drug, or retirement savings plans. In our experiment, available options can be objectively ranked allowing us to examine optimal decision making. First, the probability of a person selecting the optimal option declines as the number of options increases, with the decline being more pronounced for older subjects. Second, heuristics differ by age with older subjects relying more on suboptimal decision rules. In a heuristics validation experiment, older subjects make worse decisions than younger subjects.
摘要
通过对照实验，我们研究了个体在面对多种选择时如何做出决策。选择任务旨在模拟医疗保险、处方药或退休储蓄计划的选择。在我们的实验中，可用选项可以进行客观排序，这使我们能够研究最优决策。首先，随着选项数量的增加，一个人选择最优选项的概率会下降，这种下降在老年受试者中更为明显。其次，启发式方法因年龄而异，老年受试者更多地依赖次优决策规则。在一项启发式方法验证实验中，老年受试者做出的决策比年轻受试者更差。
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