Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Darwin Building, Gower Street, London, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2012 Sep 7;279(1742):3491-500. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2012.0683. Epub 2012 May 23.
The fossil record suggests a rapid radiation of placental mammals following the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction 65 million years ago (Ma); nevertheless, molecular time estimates, while highly variable, are generally much older. Early molecular studies suffer from inadequate dating methods, reliance on the molecular clock, and simplistic and over-confident interpretations of the fossil record. More recent studies have used Bayesian dating methods that circumvent those issues, but the use of limited data has led to large estimation uncertainties, precluding a decisive conclusion on the timing of mammalian diversifications. Here we use a powerful Bayesian method to analyse 36 nuclear genomes and 274 mitochondrial genomes (20.6 million base pairs), combined with robust but flexible fossil calibrations. Our posterior time estimates suggest that marsupials diverged from eutherians 168-178 Ma, and crown Marsupialia diverged 64-84 Ma. Placentalia diverged 88-90 Ma, and present-day placental orders (except Primates and Xenarthra) originated in a ∼20 Myr window (45-65 Ma) after the K-Pg extinction. Therefore we reject a pre K-Pg model of placental ordinal diversification. We suggest other infamous instances of mismatch between molecular and palaeontological divergence time estimates will be resolved with this same approach.
化石记录表明,在 6500 万年前的白垩纪-古近纪(K-Pg)大灭绝之后,胎盘哺乳动物迅速辐射;然而,分子时间估计虽然高度可变,但通常要古老得多。早期的分子研究受到不充分的年代测定方法、对分子钟的依赖以及对化石记录的简单和过于自信的解释的影响。最近的研究使用了规避这些问题的贝叶斯测年方法,但有限数据的使用导致了估计不确定性很大,无法就哺乳动物多样化的时间做出决定性结论。在这里,我们使用一种强大的贝叶斯方法来分析 36 个核基因组和 274 个线粒体基因组(2060 万碱基对),同时结合了稳健但灵活的化石校准。我们的后验时间估计表明,有袋类动物与真兽类动物在 168-178 Ma 分化,有袋目动物在 64-84 Ma 分化。胎盘动物在 88-90 Ma 分化,而现今的胎盘类(除灵长类和贫齿目)起源于 K-Pg 灭绝后约 20 Myr 的窗口(45-65 Ma)。因此,我们拒绝胎盘类阶元多样化的预 K-Pg 模型。我们建议,同样的方法将解决其他分子和古生物学分歧时间估计之间不匹配的著名实例。