多状态模型估计海洛因使用的发生率。

A multi-state model to estimate incidence of heroin use.

机构信息

Drug Abuse Epidemiology Research Group, IMIM-Institut de Recerca Hospital del Mar, Doctor Aiguader 88, Barcelona, Spain.

出版信息

BMC Med Res Methodol. 2013 Jan 14;13:4. doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-13-4.

BACKGROUND

Existing incidence estimates of heroin use are usually based on one information source. This study aims to incorporate more sources to estimate heroin use incidence trends in Spain between 1971 and 2005.

METHODS

A multi-state model was constructed, whereby the initial state "heroin consumer" is followed by transition to either "admitted to first treatment" or to "left heroin use" (i.e. permanent cessation or death). Heroin use incidence and probabilities of entering first treatment ever were estimated following a back-calculation approach.

RESULTS

The highest heroin use incidence rates in Spain, around 1.5 per 1,000 inhabitants aged 10-44, occurred between 1985 and 1990; subdividing by route of administration reveals higher incidences of injection between 1980 and 1985 (a mean of 0.62 per 1.000) and a peak for non-injectors in 1990 (0.867 per 1,000).

CONCLUSIONS

A simple conceptual model for heroin users' trajectories related to treatment admission, provided a broader view of the historical trend of heroin use incidence in Spain.

背景

现有的海洛因使用发病率估计通常基于单一信息来源。本研究旨在纳入更多来源，以估算西班牙 1971 年至 2005 年间海洛因使用发病率的趋势。

方法

构建了一个多状态模型，初始状态为“海洛因使用者”，随后可转移到“首次治疗入院”或“停止使用海洛因”（即永久停止或死亡）。采用回溯法估算海洛因使用发病率和首次接受治疗的概率。

结果

西班牙海洛因使用发病率最高（约为每 1000 名 10-44 岁居民中有 1.5 人），出现在 1985 年至 1990 年之间；按给药途径细分，1980 年至 1985 年间注射途径的发病率更高（平均为每 1000 人 0.62），1990 年非注射途径的发病率达到峰值（每 1000 人 0.867）。