External validation of the 2008 Framingham cardiovascular risk equation for CHD and stroke events in a European population of middle-aged men. The PRIME study.

OBJECTIVE

To test the applicability of the sex-specific 2008 Framingham general cardiovascular risk equation for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in European middle-aged men from Ireland and France.

METHODS

In the PRIME study, 9638 healthy middle-aged men recruited in France and Ireland were surveyed for 10 years for the occurrence of first CHD and stroke events. The original Framingham equation, the partially calibrated Framingham equation (using the PRIME baseline survival at 10 years), and the completely calibrated Framingham equation (additionally using risk factor means calculated in PRIME) were assessed. Model fit (expected versus observed events) and discrimination ability were assessed using a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square statistic and Harrell's c-index respectively.

RESULTS

The original (uncalibrated) Framingham equation overestimated by 1.94-fold the risk of CHD and stroke combined in PRIME, and by 2.23 and 1.42-fold in PRIME-France and PRIME-Ireland respectively. Adequate fit was found after complete calibration. However, discrimination ability of the Framingham equation was poor as shown by Harrell's c-index lower than 0.70.

CONCLUSION

The (completely) calibrated 2008 Framingham equation predicted accurate number of CHD and stroke events but discriminated poorly individuals at higher from those at lower event risk in a European population of middle-aged men.