Baldassarri Delia
Princeton University.
Soc Sci Q. 2011 Sep 1;92(3):631-655. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2011.00785.x.
Associational life may foster political integration or amplify division, depending on how individuals partition themselves into groups and whether their multiple affiliations embed them into concentric or cross-cutting social circles. Starting from this premise, I relate trends in associational membership to political partisanship, and ask if there is any evidence of increased political polarization in the associative patterns of Americans.
Using GSS data (1974-2004) on affiliations to 16 types of groups, I plot trends and run multilevel models to examine changes over time in the partisan allegiances of group members and patterns of overlapping memberships.
The often-lamented decline in group membership affects primarily the category of single-group members and is limited to a few types of groups. The density of the network of overlapping memberships has remained stable over time and there are no real changes in the patterns of shared memberships between group types, nor do Republicans and Democrats differ in their patterns of preferential affiliation. Although political partisanship does not drive patterns of group affiliation, group members, especially those affiliated with multiple groups, are more radical in their partisan identification than nonmembers, and most types of groups have become politically more heterogeneous over time.
The puzzling finding that group types are not becoming more partisan, while group members are, leads to the hypothesis (to be tested in future research) that civil society polarization is occurring at the level of actual groups, and not group types.
社团生活可能促进政治融合,也可能加剧分裂,这取决于个体如何将自己划分成不同群体,以及他们的多重身份是否将他们嵌入同心或交叉的社会圈子。基于这一前提,我将社团成员身份的趋势与政治党派性联系起来,并探究是否有证据表明美国人的社团模式中存在政治两极分化加剧的情况。
利用综合社会调查(GSS,1974 - 2004年)中关于16种类型群体的成员身份数据,我绘制了趋势图并运行多层次模型,以研究群体成员的党派忠诚随时间的变化以及重叠成员身份的模式。
经常被 lamented 的群体成员数量下降主要影响单群体成员类别,并且仅限于少数几种类型的群体。随着时间的推移,重叠成员网络的密度一直保持稳定,群体类型之间共享成员身份的模式没有实际变化,共和党人和民主党人在优先加入模式上也没有差异。虽然政治党派性不会驱动群体归属模式,但群体成员,尤其是那些隶属于多个群体的成员,在党派认同上比非成员更为激进,并且随着时间的推移,大多数类型的群体在政治上变得更加多样化。
群体类型没有变得更具党派性,而群体成员却变得更具党派性,这一令人困惑的发现引出了一个假设(有待未来研究验证),即公民社会的两极分化发生在实际群体层面,而非群体类型层面。