Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, NY.
Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2013 Oct;209(4):330.e1-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ajog.2013.06.009. Epub 2013 Jun 13.
The purpose of this study was to estimate a gestational age threshold at which the benefits of treatment with weekly courses of antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) during preterm labor outweigh the risks.
Risk-benefit ratios by gestational age were determined with the use of a Markov microsimulation decision-analysis model with a 1-week cycle length. Single course and multiple (weekly to a maximum of 4) courses of ACS by gestational age of entry (23 weeks to 31 weeks 6 days' gestation) were compared. Benefits were composite events (respiratory distress syndrome, chronic lung disease, severe intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, or stillbirth) averted. Risks were small head circumference and small for gestational age.
More composite events are averted (benefits) than risks acquired (ratio, 6:1) when multiple courses of ACS are initiated at 26 weeks' gestation. When multiple courses of ACS are initiated at 29 weeks' gestation, the risk-benefit ratio is 1. Beyond 29 weeks, there is a suggestion of more risk than benefit.
The model suggests that multiple courses of ACS that are initiated at <29 weeks' gestation may have increased benefit compared with risks. Further analyses are needed to determine the long-term clinical significance of these findings.
本研究旨在估算一个孕周阈值,在此阈值下,早产时接受每周疗程的产前皮质类固醇(ACS)治疗的益处超过风险。
使用具有 1 周周期长度的马尔可夫微模拟决策分析模型,确定按孕周的风险-效益比。比较了按进入时的孕周(23 周至 31 周 6 天)给予单疗程和多疗程(每周至最多 4 疗程)ACS。获益是复合事件(呼吸窘迫综合征、慢性肺病、严重脑室出血、脑室周围白质软化、支气管肺发育不良或死产)的预防。风险是头围小和小于胎龄儿。
当在 26 孕周时开始多疗程 ACS 时,预防的复合事件(获益)多于获得的风险(比值为 6:1)。当在 29 孕周时开始多疗程 ACS 时,风险-效益比为 1。超过 29 周时,风险似乎超过了获益。
该模型表明,在<29 孕周时开始的多疗程 ACS 可能与风险相比具有更高的获益。需要进一步分析以确定这些发现的长期临床意义。