Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, University of Paris Sud, Orsay Cedex, 91405, France.
Conserv Biol. 2013 Dec;27(6):1458-67. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12093. Epub 2013 Jul 21.
As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima.
随着气候适宜范围预测越来越多地被用于评估物种的分布，我们建议除了对栖息地进行经典的二元分类外，还要对栖息地的质量进行系统评估。我们设计了一种方法来评估出现概率，通过气候适宜指数来捕捉，从而可以确定潜在栖息地质量的变化。这种相对风险评估避免了使用任意适宜性阈值。我们用两个入侵蚂蚁物种的案例研究来说明我们的方法。我们估计了破坏蚁（Monomorium destructor）和欧洲火蚁（Myrmica rubra）在全球范围内以及到 2080 年气候变化时的入侵潜力。我们发现，目前世界上有 21.1%的陆地具有适合破坏蚁的气候，有 16%的陆地具有适合欧洲火蚁的气候。我们的气候适宜指数表明，这两种蚂蚁物种都将受益于气候变化，但方式不同。破坏蚁的潜在分布范围增加了 35.8%。与此同时，欧洲火蚁的潜在分布总面积保持不变（>0.05%），但该范围内的气候适宜度水平大大提高，导致栖息地质量得到改善（即入侵物种建立的可能性）。无论是通过适宜区域的数量还是质量，随着全球气候变化，这两种入侵蚂蚁物种都可能增加未来的入侵范围。我们的研究结果表明，如果更多的地区变得适宜，或者现有的适宜地区的适宜度提高，物种可能会扩大其分布范围。在使用任意适宜性阈值的研究中，可能会忽略气候适宜区内区域质量的变化，从而得出错误的预测。
