Boggess Lyndsay N, Maskaly Jon
University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, SOC 107, Tampa, FL 33620, United States.
Soc Sci Res. 2014 Jan;43:168-83. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2013.10.002. Epub 2013 Oct 18.
This study extends the current research on the relationship between neighborhood disorder and violent crime rates by incorporating spatial effects and the reciprocal relationship between disorder and violent crime. In particular, we test for both the potential effect of disorder on violence as well as how changes in violent crime rates can impact neighborhood levels of disorder. We control for a variety of factors related to social disorganization theory that can lead to crime and potentially disorder. In order to disentangle these relationships, we use a cross-lagged auto-regressive structural equation model and a unique dataset comprised of calls for police service and reported incidents for 117 neighborhoods in Reno, NV. We find that higher rates of disorder lead to significant, but modest, increases in violent crime, but only aggravated assaults lead to increases in disorder. These effects hold true above and beyond the effect of social disorganization and the influence of spatially proximate neighborhoods.
本研究通过纳入空间效应以及无序与暴力犯罪之间的相互关系,扩展了当前关于邻里无序与暴力犯罪率之间关系的研究。具体而言,我们既检验了无序对暴力行为的潜在影响,也检验了暴力犯罪率的变化如何影响邻里的无序程度。我们控制了与社会失序理论相关的各种因素,这些因素可能导致犯罪并潜在地引发无序。为了理清这些关系,我们使用了交叉滞后自回归结构方程模型以及一个独特的数据集,该数据集由内华达州里诺市117个社区的警务服务呼叫和报告事件组成。我们发现,较高的无序率会导致暴力犯罪显著但适度增加,但只有严重袭击会导致无序增加。这些影响在社会失序的影响以及空间上相邻社区的影响之外依然成立。