A longitudinal study of the risks for introduction of severe footrot into sheep flocks in the south west of Norway.

In 2008, ovine footrot was detected in Norway for the first time since 1948. By December 2012 it had spread to 99 flocks, all in the county of Rogaland in the south west of Norway, and 42% of which were located in the municipality of Rennesøy in Rogaland. The aim of this study was to investigate risk factors for contracting severe footrot in flocks of sheep. A flock was considered positive for severe footrot based on positive virulence test or by clinical signs in addition to a positive PCR test. A retrospective longitudinal study was performed with a questionnaire as the main data source. All sheep farmers (107) in the municipality of Rennesøy were selected for inclusion in the study. The questions focused on direct and indirect contacts between sheep in different sheep flocks and general information about the farm. The questions covered the years 2007-2011. Data were analysed using discrete time survival modelling. A total of 81 (76%) farmers responded to the questionnaire including 29 of 41 (71%) farmers with flocks positive for severe footrot. Factors that increased the risk of a flock becoming positive for severe footrot in the final multivariable survival model were sheep that trespassed boundary fences and came into contact with a flock positive for severe footrot (odds ratio 11.5, 95% confidence interval 4.1-32.2) and at least one flock with severe footrot within 0-1km radius of a farm (odds ratio 8.6, 95% confidence interval 2.3-32.6). This study highlights the importance of upgrading and maintaining boundary fences and encouraging farmers to avoid direct and indirect contact between nearby flocks.