Random and targeted interventions for epidemic control in metapopulation models.

In general, different countries and communities respond to epidemics in accordance with their own control plans and protocols. However, owing to global human migration and mobility, strategic planning for epidemic control measures through the collaboration of relevant public health administrations is gaining importance for mitigating and containing large-scale epidemics. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of random (non-strategic) and targeted (strategic) epidemic interventions for spatially separated patches in metapopulation models. For a random intervention, we analytically derive the critical fraction of patches that receive epidemic interventions, above which epidemics are successfully contained. The analysis shows that the heterogeneity of patch connectivity makes it difficult to contain epidemics under the random intervention. We demonstrate that, particularly in such heterogeneously connected networks, targeted interventions are considerably effective compared to the random intervention. Our framework is useful for identifying the target areas where epidemic control measures should be focused.