Gavrilova Natalia S, Gavrilov Leonid A
Demografie. 2011;53(2):109-128.
The increase in the number of people surviving to an advanced age poses a serious challenge to the government pension systems of industrialised societies. Therefore, accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improve forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. In this article the authors present some new approaches to mortality and population projections at older ages using Swedish period life table data. Using two simple assumptions about age- and time patterns of mortality change (log-linear decline of mortality over time and exponential growth of hazard rates with age up to very advanced ages), the authors made mortality projections for Swedish males and females for the next fifty years.
活到高龄的人数增加给工业化社会的政府养老金系统带来了严峻挑战。因此,准确估计高龄死亡率对于改进死亡率预测以及最年长老年群体的人口规模预测至关重要。在本文中,作者利用瑞典时期生命表数据,提出了一些针对老年死亡率和人口预测的新方法。基于关于死亡率变化的年龄和时间模式的两个简单假设(死亡率随时间呈对数线性下降,以及在极高龄之前危险率随年龄呈指数增长),作者对瑞典男性和女性未来五十年的死亡率进行了预测。