Bravo DE Rueda C, Dekker A, Eblé P L, DE Jong M C M
Central Veterinary Institute (CVI),Wageningen UR,Lelystad,The Netherlands.
Department Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology,Wageningen University,Wageningen,The Netherlands.
Epidemiol Infect. 2015 Aug;143(11):2279-86. doi: 10.1017/S0950268814003033. Epub 2014 Dec 3.
We quantified the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in mixed cattle-sheep populations and the effect of different vaccination strategies. The (partial) reproduction ratios (R) in groups of non-vaccinated and vaccinated cattle and/or sheep were estimated from (published) transmission experiments. A 4 × 4 next-generation matrix (NGM) was constructed using these estimates. The dominant eigenvalue of the NGM, the R for a mixed population, was determined for populations with different proportions of cattle and sheep and for three different vaccination strategies. The higher the proportion of cattle in a mixed cattle-sheep population, the higher the R for the mixed population. Therefore the impact of vaccination of the cattle is higher. After vaccination of all animals R = 0·1 independent of population composition. In mixed cattle-sheep populations with at least 14% of cattle, vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to reduce R to < 1.
我们对口蹄疫病毒在牛-羊混合群体中的传播以及不同疫苗接种策略的效果进行了量化。根据(已发表的)传播实验估计了未接种疫苗和接种疫苗的牛和/或羊群体中的(部分)繁殖比(R)。利用这些估计值构建了一个4×4的下一代矩阵(NGM)。针对不同牛和羊比例的群体以及三种不同的疫苗接种策略,确定了NGM的主导特征值,即混合群体的R。在牛-羊混合群体中,牛的比例越高,混合群体的R越高。因此,给牛接种疫苗的影响更大。在所有动物都接种疫苗后,R = 0·1,与群体组成无关。在至少有14%牛的牛-羊混合群体中,仅给牛接种疫苗就足以将R降低至<1。