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仅对牛进行疫苗接种就足以阻止口蹄疫病毒在绵羊和牛的混合群体中传播。

Vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to stop FMDV transmission in mixed populations of sheep and cattle.

作者信息

Bravo DE Rueda C, Dekker A, Eblé P L, DE Jong M C M

机构信息

Central Veterinary Institute (CVI),Wageningen UR,Lelystad,The Netherlands.

Department Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology,Wageningen University,Wageningen,The Netherlands.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 2015 Aug;143(11):2279-86. doi: 10.1017/S0950268814003033. Epub 2014 Dec 3.

Abstract

We quantified the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus in mixed cattle-sheep populations and the effect of different vaccination strategies. The (partial) reproduction ratios (R) in groups of non-vaccinated and vaccinated cattle and/or sheep were estimated from (published) transmission experiments. A 4 × 4 next-generation matrix (NGM) was constructed using these estimates. The dominant eigenvalue of the NGM, the R for a mixed population, was determined for populations with different proportions of cattle and sheep and for three different vaccination strategies. The higher the proportion of cattle in a mixed cattle-sheep population, the higher the R for the mixed population. Therefore the impact of vaccination of the cattle is higher. After vaccination of all animals R = 0·1 independent of population composition. In mixed cattle-sheep populations with at least 14% of cattle, vaccination of cattle only is sufficient to reduce R to < 1.

摘要

我们对口蹄疫病毒在牛-羊混合群体中的传播以及不同疫苗接种策略的效果进行了量化。根据(已发表的)传播实验估计了未接种疫苗和接种疫苗的牛和/或羊群体中的(部分)繁殖比(R)。利用这些估计值构建了一个4×4的下一代矩阵(NGM)。针对不同牛和羊比例的群体以及三种不同的疫苗接种策略,确定了NGM的主导特征值,即混合群体的R。在牛-羊混合群体中,牛的比例越高,混合群体的R越高。因此,给牛接种疫苗的影响更大。在所有动物都接种疫苗后,R = 0·1,与群体组成无关。在至少有14%牛的牛-羊混合群体中,仅给牛接种疫苗就足以将R降低至<1。

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