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通过复杂网络分析看投票行为、联盟与政府力量

Voting behavior, coalitions and government strength through a complex network analysis.

作者信息

Dal Maso Carlo, Pompa Gabriele, Puliga Michelangelo, Riotta Gianni, Chessa Alessandro

机构信息

IMT, Institute for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy.

IMT, Institute for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy; Linkalab, Complex Systems Computational Laboratory, Cagliari, Italy.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2014 Dec 30;9(12):e116046. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0116046. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

We analyze the network of relations between parliament members according to their voting behavior. In particular, we examine the emergent community structure with respect to political coalitions and government alliances. We rely on tools developed in the Complex Network literature to explore the core of these communities and use their topological features to develop new metrics for party polarization, internal coalition cohesiveness and government strength. As a case study, we focus on the Chamber of Deputies of the Italian Parliament, for which we are able to characterize the heterogeneity of the ruling coalition as well as parties specific contributions to the stability of the government over time. We find sharp contrast in the political debate which surprisingly does not imply a relevant structure based on established parties. We take a closer look to changes in the community structure after parties split up and their effect on the position of single deputies within communities. Finally, we introduce a way to track the stability of the government coalition over time that is able to discern the contribution of each member along with the impact of its possible defection. While our case study relies on the Italian parliament, whose relevance has come into the international spotlight in the present economic downturn, the methods developed here are entirely general and can therefore be applied to a multitude of other scenarios.

摘要

我们根据议员的投票行为分析议员之间的关系网络。具体而言,我们研究了与政治联盟和政府联盟相关的新兴社区结构。我们依靠复杂网络文献中开发的工具来探索这些社区的核心,并利用其拓扑特征来开发新的政党极化、内部联盟凝聚力和政府实力指标。作为一个案例研究,我们聚焦于意大利议会众议院,为此我们能够描述执政联盟的异质性以及各政党随时间推移对政府稳定性的具体贡献。我们发现政治辩论中存在鲜明对比,令人惊讶的是,这并不意味着基于既定政党的相关结构。我们更仔细地研究了政党分裂后社区结构的变化及其对社区内单个议员地位的影响。最后,我们介绍了一种跟踪政府联盟随时间稳定性的方法,该方法能够辨别每个成员的贡献以及其可能叛逃的影响。虽然我们的案例研究依赖于意大利议会,在当前经济衰退中其相关性已成为国际关注焦点,但这里开发的方法完全具有通用性,因此可应用于许多其他情况。

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