Liss Alexander, Koch Magaly, Naumova Elena N
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford; Tufts Initiative for Forecasting and Modeling of Infectious Diseases, Medford.
Geospat Health. 2014 Dec 1;8(3):S647-59. doi: 10.4081/gh.2014.294.
Existing climate classification has not been designed for an efficient handling of public health scenarios. This work aims to design an objective spatial climate regionalization method for assessing health risks in response to extreme weather. Specific climate regions for the conterminous United States of America (USA) were defined using satellite remote sensing (RS) data and compared with the conventional Köppen-Geiger (KG) divisions. Using the nationwide database of hospitalisations among the elderly (≥65 year olds), we examined the utility of a RS-based climate regionalization to assess public health risk due to extreme weather, by comparing the rate of hospitalisations in response to thermal extremes across climatic regions. Satellite image composites from 2002-2012 were aggregated, masked and compiled into a multi-dimensional dataset. The conterminous USA was classified into 8 distinct regions using a stepwise regionalization approach to limit noise and collinearity (LKN), which exhibited a high degree of consistency with the KG regions and a well-defined regional delineation by annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation values. The most populous was a temperate wet region (10.9 million), while the highest rate of hospitalisations due to exposure to heat and cold (9.6 and 17.7 cases per 100,000 persons at risk, respectively) was observed in the relatively warm and humid south-eastern region. RS-based regionalization demonstrates strong potential for assessing the adverse effects of severe weather on human health and for decision support. Its utility in forecasting and mitigating these effects has to be further explored.
现有的气候分类并非为有效处理公共卫生情景而设计。这项工作旨在设计一种客观的空间气候区域划分方法,以评估应对极端天气时的健康风险。利用卫星遥感(RS)数据定义了美国本土特定的气候区域,并与传统的柯本-盖格(KG)分区进行了比较。通过比较不同气候区域因极端高温导致的住院率,我们利用全国老年人(≥65岁)住院数据库,研究了基于RS的气候区域划分在评估极端天气对公众健康风险方面的效用。对2002年至2012年的卫星图像合成数据进行了汇总、掩膜处理,并编制成一个多维数据集。采用逐步区域划分方法(限制噪声和共线性,即LKN)将美国本土划分为8个不同区域,这些区域与KG区域具有高度一致性,且通过年、季温度和降水量值有明确的区域划分。人口最多的是温带湿润地区(1090万),而在相对温暖潮湿的东南部地区,因暴露于高温和低温导致的住院率最高(每10万风险人群中分别为9.6例和17.7例)。基于RS的区域划分在评估恶劣天气对人类健康的不利影响及决策支持方面显示出强大潜力。其在预测和减轻这些影响方面的效用还有待进一步探索。