Population Research Centre, Demography Department, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine, University Hospital Center, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Ann Epidemiol. 2015 Apr;25(4):243-9. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2015.01.007. Epub 2015 Jan 16.
We examined the role of smoking in the two dimensions behind the time trends in adult mortality in European countries, that is, rectangularization of the survival curve (mortality compression) and longevity extension (increase in the age-at-death).
Using data on national sex-specific populations aged 50 years and older from Denmark, Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we studied trends in life expectancy, rectangularity, and longevity from 1950 to 2009 for both all-cause and nonsmoking-related mortality and correlated them with trends in lifetime smoking prevalence.
For all-cause mortality, rectangularization accelerated around 1980 among men in all the countries studied, and more recently among women in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Trends in lifetime smoking prevalence correlated negatively with both rectangularization and longevity extension, but more negatively with rectangularization. For nonsmoking-related mortality, rectangularization among men did not accelerate around 1980. Among women, the differences between all-cause mortality and nonsmoking-related mortality were small, but larger for rectangularization than for longevity extension. Rectangularization contributed less to the increase in life expectancy than longevity extension, especially for nonsmoking-related mortality among men.
Smoking affects rectangularization more than longevity extension, both among men and women.
我们研究了吸烟在欧洲国家成年人死亡率时间趋势背后的两个维度中的作用，即生存曲线的矩形化（死亡率压缩）和长寿延长（死亡年龄增加）。
使用来自丹麦、芬兰、法国、西德、意大利、荷兰、挪威、瑞典、瑞士和英国的 50 岁及以上的全国性别特定人群的数据，我们研究了 1950 年至 2009 年全因和非吸烟相关死亡率的预期寿命、矩形化和长寿趋势，并将其与终身吸烟流行率的趋势相关联。
对于全因死亡率，1980 年左右，所有研究国家的男性矩形化加速，而丹麦和英国的女性则更近期加速。终身吸烟流行率的趋势与矩形化和长寿延长呈负相关，但与矩形化的相关性更强。对于非吸烟相关死亡率，男性的矩形化并没有在 1980 年左右加速。对于女性，全因死亡率和非吸烟相关死亡率之间的差异较小，但矩形化的差异大于长寿延长。与长寿延长相比，矩形化对预期寿命的增加贡献较小，尤其是对于男性的非吸烟相关死亡率。
吸烟对男性和女性的矩形化的影响大于对长寿延长的影响。
