van der Linden Sander L, Leiserowitz Anthony A, Feinberg Geoffrey D, Maibach Edward W
Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America.
Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2015 Feb 25;10(2):e0118489. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118489. eCollection 2015.
There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a "gateway belief model" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.
目前，在美国以及国际上，公众对人为导致气候变化的科学共识程度存在广泛的误解。此外，先前的研究已经确定了公众对科学共识的认知、对气候变化的信念以及对气候政策的支持之间的重要关联。本文通过提出并提供“网关信念模型”（GBM）的实验证据，扩展了这一研究方向。利用来自共识信息实验的全国性数据（N = 1104），我们发现，公众对科学共识的认知增加与认为气候变化正在发生、是人为导致且是一个令人担忧的威胁的信念增加之间存在显著的因果关联。反过来，这些关键信念的变化预示着对公众行动的支持增加。简而言之，我们发现，感知到的科学共识是一个重要的网关信念，最终会影响公众对气候变化的反应。
