精神病学高引研究论文的复制与矛盾：10 年随访。
Replication and contradiction of highly cited research papers in psychiatry: 10-year follow-up.
机构信息
Aran Tajika, MD, Yusuke Ogawa, MD, MPH, PhD, Nozomi Takeshima, MD, Yu Hayasaka, MD, Toshi A. Furukawa, MD, PhD, Department of Health Promotion and Human Behaviour, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
Aran Tajika, MD, Yusuke Ogawa, MD, MPH, PhD, Nozomi Takeshima, MD, Yu Hayasaka, MD, Toshi A. Furukawa, MD, PhD, Department of Health Promotion and Human Behaviour, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan.
出版信息
Br J Psychiatry. 2015 Oct;207(4):357-62. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.113.143701. Epub 2015 Jul 9.
BACKGROUND
Contradictions and initial overestimates are not unusual among highly cited studies. However, this issue has not been researched in psychiatry. Aims: To assess how highly cited studies in psychiatry are replicated by subsequent studies.
METHOD
We selected highly cited studies claiming effective psychiatric treatments in the years 2000 through 2002. For each of these studies we searched for subsequent studies with a better-controlled design, or with a similar design but a larger sample.
RESULTS
Among 83 articles recommending effective interventions, 40 had not been subject to any attempt at replication, 16 were contradicted, 11 were found to have substantially smaller effects and only 16 were replicated. The standardised mean differences of the initial studies were overestimated by 132%. Studies with a total sample size of 100 or more tended to produce replicable results.
CONCLUSIONS
Caution is needed when a study with a small sample size reports a large effect.
背景
在高度引用的研究中，矛盾和最初的高估并不罕见。然而，这个问题在精神病学中尚未得到研究。
目的
评估精神病学中高度引用的研究如何被后续研究复制。
方法
我们选择了在 2000 年至 2002 年期间声称有效的精神病治疗方法的高度引用研究。对于这些研究中的每一项，我们都搜索了具有更好控制设计的后续研究，或者具有类似设计但样本更大的研究。
结果
在 83 篇推荐有效干预措施的文章中，有 40 篇没有进行任何复制尝试，16 篇与原始研究结果相矛盾，11 篇显示出的效果要小得多，只有 16 篇被复制。初始研究的标准化均数差异被高估了 132%。总样本量为 100 或更多的研究往往会产生可复制的结果。
结论
当一项小样本量的研究报告出大的效果时，需要谨慎。
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